KARIBA – Zimbabwe’s electricity supply crisis is expected to worsen due to low water levels at Lake Kariba, the main source of power generation.
The Zambezi River Authority (ZRA) has reported that the water level is at its lowest on record, attributed to the El Niño-induced drought spell and climate crisis.
According to the ZRA’s first-quarter report, the low water inflow will significantly affect power generation, with a combined average power generation threshold of 385 megawatts at Kariba Dam for the period April to December 2024.
This is not enough to meet Zimbabwe’s consumption, which has a peak demand of 1,900 megawatts of electricity.
“A review of the performance of the first quarter of 2024 and the 2023/24 rainfall season, which is projected to end by May 2024, was undertaken through simulations of water availability and projections up to December 2024. This exercise was executed using the authority’s state of the art and robust Kariba inflow forecasting system which is underpinned by over 100 years of Zambezi River hydrological data.
“The 2023/2024 rainfall performance in the Kariba catchment was below-normal as forecasted by weather authorities (the southern African regional climate outlook forecast and the respective meteorological agencies of Zambia and Zimbabwe).
“The review also indicated the possibility of the year 2024 being recorded as the lowest lake inflow year for Lake Kariba.”
The ZRA report also announced a major decline in inflows of water into the Zambezi River and Victoria Falls, with the lake levels continuing to recede due to low inflows and reduced rainfall activity.
Despite the crisis, the Zimbabwe Electricity Supply Authority Holdings general manager (stakeholder relations) George Manyaya said he could not speak on contingency measures that Zesa intends to put in place, citing that the government agency has already pronounced its position on the matter.
Last year, Energy minister Edgar Moyo said negotiations were underway to increase electricity imports while the rehabilitation of Units 1 to 6 at Hwange Power Station was being speeded up to boost electricity supplies and bring to an end the ongoing load-shedding regime.
The power crisis is expected to worsen, with no contingency measures in place to salvage the situation.